Soybeans are the most valuable agricultural export commodity on the planet by trade volume. Understanding what they are and why they matter is the foundation of everything you'll do on this desk.
Soybeans are not consumed as-is. They are crushed:
Animal feed. ~79% by weight. ~65-70% of crush value.
Cooking oil, biodiesel. ~18% by weight. ~30-35% of value (rising).
Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, ahead of the United States and Argentina. In 2024/25, Brazil produced approximately 171 million metric tons and exported roughly half as whole beans, primarily to China (~73% of exports).
Every price on your screen, every contract you touch, exists because someone in China needs meal to feed livestock, and someone in Brazil grew the beans. Your job is to intermediate the price risk between those two ends.
Before you trade it, you should know what it looks like, how it grows, and when weather can make or break a crop.
Soybeans have two main phase groups: Vegetative (V) stages (germination through canopy closure) and Reproductive (R) stages (flowering through maturity). The entire cycle lasts ~115–135 days in Brazil.
| Stage | Name | What Happens | Weather Need | Price Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VE | Emergence | Seed germinates, cotyledons emerge | 🌧️ Needs moisture | Low |
| V1–V6 | Vegetative growth | Leaves develop, roots expand | 🌧️ Regular rain | Low–Medium |
| R1 | Beginning bloom | First flowers appear | 🌧️🌧️ CRITICAL | HIGH |
| R2–R4 | Full bloom → Pod fill | Pods form and fill | 🌧️🌧️🌧️ MOST CRITICAL | HIGHEST |
| R5 | Seed fill | Seeds grow to full size | 🌧️🌧️ Still critical | HIGH |
| R6–R7 | Maturation | Leaves yellow, moisture drops | ☀️ Needs DRY | Medium |
| R8 | Harvest maturity | 95% pods brown | ☀️ DRY | Medium |
Brazil has 236,000+ soybean farms, but they are radically different depending on where you are:
| Region | Avg Farm Size | # of Farms | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mato Grosso | 1,249 ha (3,086 acres) | ~7,100 | Corporate mega-farms. High tech, GPS-guided. |
| Paraná / RS | 53 ha (131 acres) | ~180,000 | Family farms. Cooperative culture. |
| MATOPIBA | 500–1,000+ ha | Growing | New frontier. Expanding rapidly. |
| USA (comparison) | ~120 ha (300 acres) | ~300,000 | Midwest family farms. Corn-soy rotation. |
A single MT farm (~1,250 ha) produces roughly 4,500 mt of soybeans per harvest — that's about 7.5% of a full Panamax cargo from ONE farm. In Paraná, you'd need ~24 farms to fill the same vessel.
The crop cycle, producing states, and the flow from farm to port.
| # | State | % of Crop | Primary Port | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mato Grosso (MT) | ~28% | Santos, Barcarena, Itaqui | Cerrado mega-farms. Earliest harvest. |
| 2 | Paraná (PR) | ~15% | Paranaguá, São Francisco do Sul | Family farms + coops. Feeds Paranaguá. |
| 3 | Rio Grande do Sul (RS) | ~11% | Rio Grande | Weather volatile. Latest harvest. |
| 4 | Goiás (GO) | ~11% | Santos, Itaqui | Cerrado. Growing area. |
| 5 | Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) | ~9% | Santos, Paranaguá | Mix cerrado and subtropical. |
| 6 | MATOPIBA (BA/TO/PI/MA) | ~13% | Itaqui, Salvador | New frontier. Fastest growth. |
Click on any port marker for detailed specs: draft, LOA, berths, soy volumes, and terminal operators.
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Paranaguá is the #2 soy export port (after Santos) and #1 for Paraná production. It feeds directly from the state that matters most to your desk. Long lineups (60+ vessels in peak season) directly affect premiums.
When you see 'Panamax' or 'Kamsarmax', it's a vessel size class. This determines what fits where.
| Class | DWT | LOA | Beam | Draft | Cranes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handysize | 10k–40k | 110–150m | ~25–28m | ~10m | Yes |
| Handymax | 40k–50k | 150–190m | ~28–32m | ~11–12m | Yes (4×30t) |
| Supramax | 50k–60k | ~190–199m | ~32m | ~12.2m | Yes (4×30t) |
| Ultramax | 60k–65k | ~200m | <32.2m | ~13.3m | Yes (4×35t) |
| Panamax ⭐ | 65k–80k | ~225m | ≤32.31m | ~12–14m | No (gearless) |
| Kamsarmax ⭐ | 80k–85k | ≤229m | ≤32.31m | ~14.5m | No |
| Capesize | 100k–200k | 230–270m | ~43m | ~17m | No |
| Port | Supra | Panamax | Kamsarmax | Post-Pnx | Cape |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paranaguá | ✓ | ✓ | ⚠ draft | tight | ✗ |
| Santos | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | some | ✗ |
| Itaqui | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | channel ok |
| Barcarena | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | capable | ✗ |
| Rio Grande | ✓ | ✓ | ⚠ draft | ✗ | ✗ |
Itaqui's 23m channel = no draft restriction. That's why northern arc ports are gaining share from Paranaguá.
You trade paper, not physical beans. But logistics constraints drive premiums.
Dominant mode (~60%). Most expensive. BR-163, BR-277 key routes.
Growing share. Rumo (Santos/PGA), VLI (Carajás/FNS → Itaqui). ~30% cheaper than truck.
Northern arc. Hidrovias do Brasil (Tapajós/Amazon). Cheapest (~60% less than truck). Seasonal.
Logistics IS the premium. Long lineups = higher premiums. New infrastructure = structural premium compression.
The CBOT is the global soybean price benchmark. Everything references it.
A futures contract is a standardized agreement traded on exchange. Marked to market daily.
Bought. Profit if ↑
Sold. Profit if ↓
No position.
This drives everything on the desk. Get this wrong and you misprice contracts.
Exit before this. Biz day before 1st of contract month.
Biz day before 15th of contract month. Trading stops.
| Shipment | CBOT Ref | Crop Phase |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | H (Mar) | Early harvest MT |
| Feb | H (Mar) | Harvest accelerating |
| Mar | H (Mar) | Peak harvest |
| Apr | K (May) | Peak / logistics |
| May | K (May) | Harvest ending |
| Jun | N (Jul) | Export flow |
| Jul | N (Jul) | Export flow |
| Aug | Q(Aug) / U(Sep) | Late flow |
| Sep | U(Sep) / X(Nov) | Tail end |
| Oct | X (Nov) | Off-season |
| Nov | X (Nov) | Off-season |
| Dec | X(Nov) / F(Jan next) | Off-season / new |
Rolling = close expiring, open next. Spread = the difference. Carry = deferred higher. Inverse = nearby higher.
Fix CBOT BEFORE the reference month expires. Miss the deadline = default pricing or contract cancellation.
Right, not obligation. Core hedging tool.
Right to BUY at strike. Caps upside risk.
Right to SELL at strike. Sets price floor.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Strike | Exercise price |
| Premium | Price paid for option |
| ITM | Has intrinsic value |
| OTM | No intrinsic value |
| ATM | Strike ≈ market |
| Expiry | Last Fri before FND - 2 biz days |
Know calls, puts, collars, and that options expire before futures. That's enough to start.
The most important equation on your desk.
CBOT + premium = one number. Done.
This is what you trade. Premium agreed, CBOT floating.
CBOT = global, everyone sees it. Premium = your edge. That's what you trade.
Why premiums move. Why March ≠ July. This is where you become a trader.
Big crop → premiums fall
China buying → premiums rise
Congestion → premium spike
Freight differential = competitiveness
US/AR pricing affects BR premium
Weak BRL → more selling → softer premium
Premiums form a forward curve:
| Period | Tendency | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Feb–Apr | Lower ↓ | Peak harvest. Supply flood. |
| May–Jul | Recovering → | Harvest done. China absorbing. |
| Aug–Oct | Higher ↑ | Less supply. Storage costs. Carry. |
| Nov–Jan | Variable ↔ | New crop speculation. Weather driven. |
Premium curve shape = market's supply/demand expectation. Steep = tightness ahead. Flat = plenty of supply.
China buys cheapest delivered. Three origins compete.
| Period | Dominant | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇷 Mar–Aug | BRAZIL | Harvest + export flow. BR cheapest. |
| 🇺🇸 Sep–Feb | USA | US harvest. Gulf/PNW competitive. |
| 🇦🇷 Apr–Jul | AR (smaller) | AR harvest. Export taxes make it expensive for beans. |
When US is cheaper delivered, China switches. BR premiums must adjust down.
Argentina's ~33% export tax on beans incentivizes crushing. AR = #1 meal exporter, but smaller on beans.
| Route | Transit | Via | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 PNW → China | 15-20 days | Direct Pacific | Shortest to China |
| 🇧🇷 North Arc → Europe | 15-25 days | Direct Atlantic | Itaqui → EU. Shortest BR route. |
| 🇧🇷 North Arc → MENA | 20-30 days | Med/Suez | Turkey, Iran. Key market. |
| 🇧🇷 South → China | 35-45 days | Cape of Good Hope | STS, PGA, RIG → China |
| 🇦🇷 Rosario → China | 40-50 days | Cape | Mainly meal/oil |
| 🇺🇸 USG → China | 45-55 days | Panama Canal | Sep-Feb export window |
Premiums weakening in Sep = US harvest arriving. Premiums strongest Mar-May = BR is the only game.
The third leg. USD prices → BRL farmer reality.
| Scenario | BRL | Farmer R$/saca | Competitiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real weakens | 5.00→5.50 | ↑ Higher | BR more competitive |
| Real strengthens | 5.50→5.00 | ↓ Lower | BR less competitive |
FX is traded via dólar futuro on B3. NDF contracts, USD 50,000 each.
The calculation behind every farmer sale. Learn it cold.
Price exposure, not physical cargo.
| Paper | Physical | |
|---|---|---|
| Intent | Price / hedge | Origination / consumption |
| Delivery | Often washed out | Vessel loaded |
| Players | Brokers, traders, funds | Exporters, crushers, importers |
| Risk | Price + credit | Price + logistics + quality + credit |
~60k mt. One Panamax/Kamsarmax. The standard unit.
5k-25k mt. Assembled into full cargo by exporter.
Paper = right to ship.
Olam buys paper from originators to get cargo access without physical infrastructure.
Sell paper before buying from farmer.
View on premium direction.
Brokers keep the market liquid.
Optimize port allocation.
Intermediate. Commission/ton. Edge: flow visibility.
Prop positions. P&L book. Edge: balance sheet + origination.
ABCDs: ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus.
Global: COFCO, CHS, CJ, Olam, Zennoh, Agrex/Mitsubishi, Sucden, Viterra.
Trading: BTG, Nova Agri, Amaggi, Caramuru, Granol, Bianchini, Camera.
Coops: Coamo, C.Vale, Lar, Cocamar, Coopavel, Cotriguaçu. Feed PGA directly.
Paper = access without infrastructure. Broker = connect, provide liquidity, earn on flow.
What the contract actually looks like.
"I buy 1 lot beans, FOB PGA, Apr shipment, +30 K"
| Element | This trade | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Qty | 1 lot | ~60,000 mt (±10%) |
| Product | Beans (soja) | Brazilian soybeans |
| Incoterm | FOB | Seller's cost ends at ship |
| Port | PGA | Paranaguá |
| Shipment | Apr | Loading window Apr 1-30 |
| Premium | +30 | +$30/mt over CBOT |
| CBOT Ref | K | May futures |
Buyer is long basis +30 over K. CBOT unfixed. Fix it later to lock flat price.
The industry standard. Used by everyone.
Quality: Oil 18.5%, moisture 14% max, FM 1% max, damaged 8% max.
Qty: ±10% seller's option.
Price: Flat or CBOT + premium. Multiplier: 39.3678.
Weight: Shore scales. Max 0.3% discrepancy.
Arbitration: FOSFA or ABAR.
Decoding what you see on WhatsApp. The Brazilian way.
Brazil reads it backwards: ASK/BID, not bid/offer.
| Part | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| +32 | ASK | Seller at +32c/mt |
| +28 | BID | Buyer at +28c/mt |
| K | CBOT | May futures |
| Apr | Shipment | April window |
| PGA | Port | Paranaguá |
| 25k | Size | 25k mt partial |
| Phrase | Meaning |
|---|---|
| "Bido 28 pra 25k Apr" | BUY 25k Apr at +28 |
| "Ofereço 1 lote Mai a 35 sobre N" | SELL 60k May +35/N |
| "Firm" / "Firme" | Live. Hit it now. |
| "Indicativo" / "Indic" | Reference only. |
| "Trabalhando" / "Working" | Order in hand, no match. |
| "Fechado" / "Done" | Done. |
| "Washed" / "Wash-out" | Cash settled. |
From indication to close-out. The real workflow.
See → evaluate → execute → hedge → book → monitor → exit. Most exits via wash-out, not delivery.
Three legs to fix. Miss a deadline = trouble.
| Leg | What | Where | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Futures | CME (CBOT) | Before FND |
| Premium | Spread | OTC / Broker | Usually at trade |
| FX | USD/BRL | B3 / OTC | Per policy |
| Unfixed | Risk |
|---|---|
| CBOT | Price moves against you |
| Premium | Basis moves against |
| FX | FX moves against |
Paper: fix premium at trade, manage CBOT independently. FX matters more for physical chain.
Who's who and why they do what they do.
| Player | Role | Motivation |
|---|---|---|
| Farmer | Grows & sells | Max R$/saca |
| Cooperative | Aggregates volume | Logistics + service |
| Originator | Buys → sells | Origination margin |
| Trading House (ABCD+) | Full chain | Global optimization |
| Broker | Intermediates | Commission/ton |
| Importer | End-buyer | Supply + crush margin |
You trade the price. Not the beans.
Demand is concentrated. Knowing buyers = knowing premiums.
COFCO, Sinograin, Wilmar. Feed demand. Crush margins drive pace.
Meal for livestock. EUDR compliance. Non-GMO premium.
SE Asia, MENA. Growing diversification.
The crush margin = profit from buying beans, crushing, selling meal + oil. Positive margin = aggressive buying.
CBOT theoretical. High = buy more beans.
Dalian meal/oil − CFR bean cost. THIS drives China buying.
Profitable crush → aggressive buying
Hog margins → meal demand → bean imports
Cheapest CFR delivered wins
BR→China ~35-45 days. Plan months ahead.
Area is known. Yield is the wildcard.
| Year | mt/ha | bu/ac | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 3.50 | 52.1 | |
| 2019/20 | 3.40 | 50.6 | |
| 2020/21 | 3.50 | 52.1 | |
| 2021/22 | 3.10 | 46.1 | La Niña drought |
| 2022/23 | 3.60 | 53.6 | Record |
| 2023/24 | 3.30 | 49.1 | Below trend |
| 2024/25 | 3.62 | 53.9 | Record — 171.4 mmt |
R1-R5 critical. 5% irrigated. Drought = disaster.
La Niña = RS drought risk. El Niño = south floods.
+40 kg/ha trend per year. Genetics improving.
Major disease. Expensive to control.
0.3 mt/ha swing = 14 mmt production change. Weather Dec-Feb = your #1 input.
Vessel queue = physical flow pulse = premium driver.
Official PGA lineup. Daily.
APPA LineupBi-weekly export pace. Market benchmark.
anec.com.brOfficial trade data. Lagged but definitive.
ComexStat| Tool | What |
|---|---|
| MarineTraffic | AIS live. marinetraffic.com |
| VesselFinder | Free AIS. vesselfinder.com |
| Agents | Williams, Navitraff. Subscription. |
Everything. Know the taxonomy.
Price moves against before hedge.
Default = open position in moved market.
Wrong terms. Missed deadlines. Errors.
CBOT hedged ≠ premium protected.
Strikes, closures, quality.
Agreeing on exit price = contentious.
Your daily operating rhythm.
CBOT overnight, USD/BRL pre-market, lineup, weather, Dalian.
CBOT live, premium indications, FX, news flow.
Mark book. Reconcile trades. Prep tomorrow.
| Report | Source | When | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| WASDE | USDA | ~12th, 12:00 ET | 🔴🔴🔴 |
| Export Sales | USDA | Thu 8:30 ET | 🔴🔴 |
| Crop Progress | USDA | Mon 4:00 ET | 🔴🔴 |
| CONAB Safra | CONAB | Monthly | 🔴🔴 |
| ANEC | ANEC | Bi-weekly | 🔴 |
| ABIOVE | ABIOVE | Monthly | 🟡 |
| COT (CFTC) | CFTC | Fri 3:30 ET | 🟡 |
| Export Inspections | USDA | Mon 11:00 ET | 🟡 |
Your information ecosystem.
noticiasagricolas.com.br
soybeansandcorn.com
agrolink.com.br
canalrural.com.br
| Source | Why |
|---|---|
| Bloomberg Terminal | Standard. CBOT, premiums, news. |
| CME Group | cmegroup.com — official data. |
| USDA | usda.gov — most impactful reports. |
| CONAB | conab.gov.br — BR crop data. |
| ABIOVE | abiove.org.br — crush data. |
| Dalian (DCE) | Chinese demand signal. |
| PT / EN | Definition |
|---|---|
| Bushel (bu) | 60 lbs ≈ 27.216 kg |
| Saca | 60 kg — farm pricing unit |
| Prêmio / Premium | USD/mt over CBOT |
| FOB | Cost ends at ship |
| CFR / CIF | Seller pays freight (+ insurance) |
| Fixação / Fixing | Locking floating leg |
| Em aberto / Unfixed | Not yet locked |
| Flat price | CBOT + premium combined |
| Wash-out | Cash settle, no beans |
| Lineup | Vessel queue |
| Demurrage | Delay penalty |
| Despatch | Fast loading bonus |
| Lote / Lot | ~60,000 mt (full cargo) |
| Parcial / Partial | 5,000–25,000 mt |
| NOR | Vessel declares ready |
| Carry | Deferred > nearby |
| Inverse | Nearby > deferred |
| ABCD | ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Dreyfus |
| Safrinha | 2nd crop, corn after soy |
| B3 | Brazilian exchange |
| PGA (PAGUA) / STS / RIG | Paranaguá / Santos / Rio Grande |
| Bid | Buy price |
| Offer | Sell price |
| Firm | Live, tradeable |
| Indicative | Not executable |
| Ferrugem / Asian Rust | Major fungal disease |
| Vazio Sanitário | Mandatory soy-free period |